Gilad Shalit Release: Israeli Joy Mixed over Prisoner Swap

Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit salutes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he disembarks from an army helicopter at Tel Nof air base in Israel on Oct. 18, 2011

Israel was happy, very happy. The news of a deal to bring home the kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit arrived with the holiday of Sukkot, a traditionally cheerful weeklong harvest festival made effervescent by the news that a young man held captive by Hamas for five years was coming home to his family.

But by the time Shalit actually walked free on Tuesday, so frail he passed out on the helicopter ride home, the elation was tempered by the reality of the price Israelis had paid to set him free. The 1,027 Palestinian prisoners to be exchanged for the lone Israeli corporal turned out to include men and women convicted of some of the worst terrorism attacks in a country still haunted by the memory of the second intifadeh. (See pictures of the five-year ordeal of Gilad Shalit.)

"Ambivalent," says Aya Ilouz, of her feelings on the matter. Strolling in downtown Jerusalem with her husband Liron and their 5-month-old daughter Yael, the couple is so in sync on the question of the day that they finish each other's thoughts.

"Yes," says Liron, "we are very happy and excited to see Gilad meet his family. And on the other hand—"

"We are very concerned," says Aya.

"About what happens next," Liron explains. "When the next terrorist blows himself up, someone will have to answer."

Just around the corner, on King George Street, Alan Bauer had been walking home with his son on March 21, 2002, when a Palestinian man named Mohammad Hashaika detonated a suicide vest packed with metal scraps. The head of a screw pierced his son Yonatan's brain; the boy survived but was blind for three weeks and still limps. Another bit of metal went through Bauer's left forearm; he rolls up a sleeve to display the scar, an indentation in the flesh the shape and size of a D-cell battery. Eighty-four other people were wounded that day. Of the three killed, one was a woman pregnant with twins.

Though the bomber of course died, Israeli courts convicted the two women who drove him to the site of the bombing, easing his way past the Israeli checkpoint by buying flowers to carry in the Mother's Day crowd. The women watched from a safe distance — though still near enough that one entered a restaurant in clothes flecked with flesh.

"These women, as I speak, are being released," Bauer says.

The Chicago native addressed reporters in a room where the television was tuned, like most other sets in Israel, to live coverage of Shalit's return. In an abrupt shift of tone, an organizer inserted a DVD of the documentary For the Sake of Allah and the screen was filled with jailhouse interviews of Palestinian militants discussing, often casually, the mechanics of carrying out "operations." Specifics have a way of undermining the euphoria of Shalit's release. Among the 477 prisoners released on Tuesday, in the first phase of the exchange, are an organizer of the 2002 Passover bombing that killed 30 people, the deadliest attack of the second intifadeh; a woman who developed an online relationship with a lovesick Israeli youth she then had murdered when he came to meet her; and the man who proudly displayed his bloody hands to the mob gathered outside the Ramallah building where two Israeli soldiers were beaten to death after making a wrong turn on Oct. 12, 2000. (See pictures of Palestinians freed in the prisoner swap with Israel.)

When the list became public, relatives of terrorism victims appealed, without success, to Israel's supreme court to prevent the prisoner exchange. The court hearing was interrupted repeatedly by distraught survivors, including Shvuel Schijveschuurder, who lost five of his family members in a 2001 attack at a Jerusalem Sbarro. To protest the release of the woman who drove the suicide bomber to the pizza restaurant, Schijveschuurder poured paint on a memorial to Yitzhak Rabin, the Prime Minister slain by an Israeli extremist for signing the Oslo Accords.

"When we say 1,027 prisoners will be released, it's abstract, it doesn't mean anything," says Eliad Moreh Rosenberg, who was wounded in the 2002 terrorism bombing at the Hebrew University cafeteria. "But for victims of terror, it's a reality."

Prisoner swaps have happened often enough that statistics have been compiled. Israeli officials calculate that 60% of those released resume terrorism attacks. To help prevent that resumption this time around, Israel insisted that most of the prisoners liberated be sent either to the Gaza Strip — which is sealed off from Israel and under the control of Hamas, which says it continues to observe a cease-fire — or into exile in Turkey, Qatar or Syria. About 100 arrived in the West Bank, where the government led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas works diligently to suppress terrorism, coordinating with Israeli intelligence and military.

Still, in voting against the swap in the Israeli Cabinet, which overwhelmingly approved the deal, Minister for Strategic Affairs Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon noted that Palestinians freed in a 1985 exchange — which brought three captured soldiers home from Lebanon in exchange for 1,150 prisoners — would later cause the deaths of 178 Israelis. "They've essentially released a time bomb for which no one will take responsibility," says Bauer.

With the future unceratin, on Tuesday, Jewish Israelis stopped and stared at televisions wherever they came upon them. On the sidewalk at midmorning outside the 24-hour Hillel Market, 50 people were gathered under a flat screen to catch the first images of Shalit, looking painfully thin as he was marched through a high-ceilinged hall at the Egyptian border. Behind the cash register, Merav Cohen promised champagne for everyone the moment Shalit entered Israel.

"It was moving. It was very exciting," says Anat Rubin, 42. "I just saw photos of him getting out of the car. It gave me chills." But she says she heard Hamas say that, learning from success, it was keen to kidnap more Israelis in order to win freedom for the 6,000 Palestinians still in Israeli prisons. "I don't want to see the photos of them doing the V for victory," she says. "Like they won. They are really releasing murderers. I'm happy and sad all together."

— With reporting by Aaron J. Klein / Jerusalem

See more international news in Global Spin.

Gilad Shalit and the End of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

As momentous as Tuesday's scheduled release of Sergeant Gilad Shalit and 477 Palestinian prisoners (with another 550 to freed within two months) may be, it is unlikely to be a game-changer -- or a milestone on the road to peace. Indeed, while the spectacle of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu breaking the ostensible taboo on negotiating with Hamas and heeding many of its demands in order to bring home the captive Israeli soldier may look like a sea-change, it's more likely to reinforce the stalemate in the wider conflict -- and possibly even raise the danger of a new hostilities.

Despite the fervent opposition of some Israelis -- from families of terror victims to prominent cabinet members -- to freeing men with Israeli blood on their hands, Netanyahu's decision remains a popular one. A poll conducted by the daily Yediot Ahronot published Monday showed that 79% of Israelis support the deal, reconciling themselves to paying a bitter price for bringing home the soldier captured, at age 19, more than five years ago. Still, it should come as no surprise in the months ahead if an Israeli government forced into what it will see as a humiliating agreement seeks to restore its self-image of resolute toughness by dealing harshly with future challenges. And the fact that Netanyahu's climb-down on Shalit has been accompanied by the announcement of new settlement construction on occupied land underscores the sense that Israel's hawkish government has no intention of making the compromises necessary to bring President Mahmoud Abbas back to the table. Abbas, after all, holds no Israeli captives, and may not have much else Netanyahu believes he needs right now.

Indeed, the Shalit agreement has been something of a setback for Abbas. Hamas' achievement in freeing some of the thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prison is a more tangible gain, in Palestinian eyes, than the hypothetical statehood amid continued occupation being pursued by Abbas at United Nations. Palestinian society doesn't regard these men and women as criminals, but rather fighters in the national cause -- a peace agreement with the Palestinians would ultimately require the release of all Palestinians who remain in Israeli custody, even if convicted of acts of terrorism.

But no such painful moment of reckoning is in the offing, of course, because neither side harbors any hope of negotiating an end to the conflict any time soon. The recent speeches at the United Nations by President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the vast gulf between the two sides, and only the most Pollyanna-ish of Western diplomats expect anything significant to come from the current effort by the U.S. and its "Quartet" allies to restart direct talks as an alternative to Abbas' U.N. effort. Abbas has made clear that even if he agrees to meet Israeli leaders,  he won't drop the U.N. bid -- which, after all, is what forced the Obama Administration to address the issue with greater urgency.

But the Shalit deal upstages Abbas, giving Hamas a victory that will be celebrated by all Palestinians (the prisoners being released come from all factions), and served up a reminder that the group cannot be ignored or sidelined in any successful peace effort.

Former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy explains:

"Given the numbers that have past through Israeli jails over the years, the prisoner issue speaks to just about every Palestinian family. The contrast was rather stark: Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas was in South America being rebuffed by the Colombians in his appeal for support on the doomed-to-fail U.N. membership bid (Colombia is currently on the Security Council), while Hamas was securing concrete achievements back home. Again, the timing here was crucial -- Abbas had just received a boost to his popularity by defying Israel and the U.S. in making an emotional appeal to the U.N. That would anyway be difficult to sustain if the U.N. move could not be morphed into something meaningful, but now it will be further downsized as a gesture in comparison to the pictures of hundreds of prisoners embracing their freedom."

Hamas' ability to impose its terms for freeing Shalit also contrasts sharply with Abbas' years of ineffectual negotiation. But while the Israelis were willing to make a pragmatic accommodation with Hamas to secure their soldier's release, neither side will see it as a first step towards political engagement. If the Israeli government has been unable to come to terms with the more pliant Abbas, there's no question of being able to do so with Hamas. And Hamas would likely prefer to seek pragmatic agreements on specific issues, such as prisoners, ceasefires and the Gaza blockade, boosting their own standing without having to own any of the compromises that a comprehensive peace agreement would require.

Hamas, in fact, has shown little interest in pursuing a "grand bargain" peace agreement with the Israelis of the sort envisaged under the Oslo Agreements. And in that respect, at least, the Israelis may concur, having made no secret of their belief that a comprehensive political settlement to the conflict is not currently possible.

The Shalit deal could raise pressure on Abbas from his rank and file for progress in the stalled rapprochement with Hamas. The fact that the Israelis were forced to deal with the group in a pragmatic manner might give Abbas some cover against Israel's refusal to deal with him if he proceeds with the unity agreement -- after all, Abbas might argue, it makes no sense for Israel to acknowledge reality in its own dealings with Hamas but insist that Abbas refrain from doing so.

But regardless of whether or not he reconciles with Hamas, the Israelis are not showing any inclination to accepting Abbas' terms for talks. Indeed, the lesson Abbas might draw is that Hamas succeeded on the prisoner deal because of the leverage it brought to the table by holding Shalit. Not that Fatah would now try to match Hamas by undertaking kidnappings of its own, but the prisoner release could reinforce efforts from within Abbas' camp to raise Israel's discomfort level with the status quo through protest action and pressing for global economic sanctions.

It's quite possible, of course, that either Hamas or rival movements seek to repeat the Shalit experience at some point in order to free more prisoners. Should that happen, it's also likely that the lesson taken by Israeli leaders from the Shalit experience translate into an early, high-risk military operation to free any future captives.

Even with no more kidnappings, however, the prisoner exchange is a reminder that the situation in the West Bank and Gaza remains fraught with peril, with the peace process moribund and Israelis and Palestinians only just beginning a new diplomatic, political and economic battle over the terms of their coexistence. The Gilad Shalit deal may, in fact, prove to be a first milestone of the post-peace process.

The Israel-Hamas Prisoner Swap: Who Wins in the Freeing of Gilad Shalit?

Captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is seen in this file still image from video released October 2, 2009 by Israeli television. (Photo: Reuters)

Win-win outcomes are all too rare in the Middle East, but the agreement that will see Hamas free captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for a reported 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will allow each of its stakeholders to claim victory.

Details of the deal concluded in Cairo under Egyptian mediation remain sketchy, but it is believed to involve securing Shalit's release from Hamas captivity in exchange for some 1,000 prisoners — 450 of whom will be named by Hamas, and 550 to be named later on by Israel, and will include as many as 315 men convicted of killing hundreds of Israelis in terror attacks, to whose release the Israelis had strenuously objected in the past. Shalit was seized from the Israeli side of the Gaza boundary in mid-2006. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal said Tuesday the exchange will begin within a week, with 450 Palestinian prisoners, and Shalit, being transferred to Egypt.

Hamas spokesmen claimed Tuesday that among the men to be released is Marwan Barghouti, the popular Fatah leader widely viewed as a potential successor (and quite possibly also rival) to President Mahmoud Abbas. According to some Israeli reports, Barghouti will be required to accept exile from the West Bank. Another powerful symbol among those to be released is the Hamas militant Abdullah Barghouti (no relation), serving 67 life sentences for building bombs used in suicide attacks. (Update: Israel later insisted neither Barghouti would be released.)

(SEE: Photos of the Saga of Gilad Shalit)

If the deal is implemented, there are plenty of political spoils to go around:

* Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will gain the kudos for having done a painful deal to bring home a young man whose captivity had been a source of enduring national anguish and pain. The modest smiles on the faces of his parents, Noam and Aviva Shalit, upon hearing the news that their son will finally see the light of day after five years and four months of grueling secret captivity, will be hailed as an iconic moment in Israel.

* For Hamas, the deal will be hailed as a major achievement -- having forced the Israelis to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (of all factions), the Islamist movement will have scored a win on one of the most powerful emotive issues for residents of the West Bank and Gaza, and it will claim to have demonstrated that it was the steadfastness of the "resistance" rather President Mahmoud Abbas' negotiations and diplomacy that forced Israel to concede. The agreement will serve as a stark reminder of Hamas' centrality to the Palestinian political equation, despite its absence from levers of power in the Palestinian Authority. The fact that Hamas, rather than Abbas, was able to secure the release of key Fatah prisoners, some of whom had served as many 25 years, will sweeten the victory for the Islamists.

* And for Egypt, which brokered the final deal after German mediation efforts had faltered, it has provided an opportunity to demonstrate to the Israelis (and Americans) as well to the Palestinians that the military junta that replaced President Hosni Mubarak can play a responsible role in mediating positive outcomes.

Needless to say, there's little political gain in the deal for Abbas, currently on a world tour to boost support for his effort to win U.N. recognition of a Palestinian state. The Palestinian Authority has had no part in negotiating the prisoner swap, and holds no sway over events in Hamas-ruled Gaza.

In Caracas, Abbas told TIME's Karl Vick, who is traveling with the Palestinian leader on his diplomatic roadshow, that "all in all it is good, of course. To release 1,000 prisoners is good for us, for the families." He claimed he wasn't worried if this would boost Hamas, a political rival: "Whether they are with us or against us, they are Palestinians. Any release of any prisoner is in the interest of every Palestinian."

Still, Abbas is more likely to be hoping that the attention garnered by the prisoner swap passes quickly, to allow his diplomatic quest to reclaim the Palestinian spotlight — although Hamas has no interest in letting that happen.

It's not yet clear why a deal whose parameters appear to be broadly similar to ones that have been on the table  -- and rejected by one side or the other -- for the best part of four years now were suddenly acceptable. One of the key sticking points in the recent past has been the question of where freed Palestinian prisoners will live, and whether they will include residents of East Jerusalem. Hamas claims to have prevailed on the latter, but it's not clear whether the prisoners will be allowed to return to their homes, as the Islamists have insisted, or whether they've bowed to the Israeli demand that some of those from the West Bank be transferred to Gaza, and others be required to live in exile. It may be days before those details are disclosed, and also the full list of those to be freed.

Hamas' circumstances outside of Gaza have certainly become increasingly precarious in the course of the Syrian rebellion, that has jeopardized the movement's political sanctuary in Damascus. The Assad regime has demanded public support from the Palestinian group, but Hamas has declined to provide that -- its own roots in the Muslim Brotherhood give Hamas ties of political kinship with the Syrian chapter of the movement, which is at the forefront of confrontations with the Assad regime. Hamas' equivocation in the face of the Syrian crisis has drawn punishment from Iran, which has reportedly cut off funding to Gaza, where Hamas has reportedly been unable to pay salaries for months. And some Syrian officials even accuse the moment of directly backing the insurrection. So, Hamas may be looking for new digs, and it behooves the movement's leadership to make nice with Egypt while it considers its options.

For the Israelis, there was a sense that the rapidly changes in the regional environment that began with the rebellions in Egypt and Tunisia last spring could jeopardize prospects for achieving Shalit's freedom. "We had a fear that the window of opportunity was closing," Netanyahu said ahead of the Israeli cabinet meeting to discuss the deal. Hamas' circumstances in Syria were changing, and the Egyptian military regime whose cooperation he praised may not necessarily be a long-term fixture.

And an Egyptian military leadership operating in an environment where it has legalized the Muslim Brotherhood and spoken of a democratic political process would not necessarily share Mubarak's reluctance to see Hamas win a victory.

There will be pain and regret, inevitably, when the lists of those to be freed are released -- from Israelis who have suffered at the hands of those who will now walk free, and from Palestinians whose loved ones were not on the list (there are thousands) and whose hopes of getting them freed in the foreseeable future will have been dashed. But the smiles on the faces of Noam and Aviva Shalit, and those that can be expected on the faces of a thousand Palestinian families when their own sons are freed, offers an all-too-rare moment free of pain in the enduring conflict.

-- With reporting by Aaron J. Klein/Jerusalem

The Israel-Hamas Prisoner Swap: Who Wins in the Freeing of Gilad Shalit?

Captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is seen in this file still image from video released October 2, 2009 by Israeli television. (Photo: Reuters)

Win-win outcomes are all too rare in the Middle East, but the agreement that will see Hamas free captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for a reported 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will allow each of its stakeholders to claim victory.

Details of the deal concluded in Cairo under Egyptian mediation remain sketchy, but it is believed to involve securing Shalit's release from Hamas captivity in exchange for some 1,000 prisoners — 450 of whom will be named by Hamas, and 550 to be named later on by Israel, and will include as many as 315 men convicted of killing hundreds of Israelis in terror attacks, to whose release the Israelis had strenuously objected in the past. Shalit was seized from the Israeli side of the Gaza boundary in mid-2006. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal said Tuesday the exchange will begin within a week, with 450 Palestinian prisoners, and Shalit, being transferred to Egypt.

Hamas spokesmen claimed Tuesday that among the men to be released is Marwan Barghouti, the popular Fatah leader widely viewed as a potential successor (and quite possibly also rival) to President Mahmoud Abbas. According to some Israeli reports, Barghouti will be required to accept exile from the West Bank. Another powerful symbol among those to be released is the Hamas militant Abdullah Barghouti (no relation), serving 67 life sentences for building bombs used in suicide attacks. (Update: Israel later insisted neither Barghouti would be released.)

(SEE: Photos of the Saga of Gilad Shalit)

If the deal is implemented, there are plenty of political spoils to go around:

* Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will gain the kudos for having done a painful deal to bring home a young man whose captivity had been a source of enduring national anguish and pain. The modest smiles on the faces of his parents, Noam and Aviva Shalit, upon hearing the news that their son will finally see the light of day after five years and four months of grueling secret captivity, will be hailed as an iconic moment in Israel.

* For Hamas, the deal will be hailed as a major achievement -- having forced the Israelis to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (of all factions), the Islamist movement will have scored a win on one of the most powerful emotive issues for residents of the West Bank and Gaza, and it will claim to have demonstrated that it was the steadfastness of the "resistance" rather President Mahmoud Abbas' negotiations and diplomacy that forced Israel to concede. The agreement will serve as a stark reminder of Hamas' centrality to the Palestinian political equation, despite its absence from levers of power in the Palestinian Authority. The fact that Hamas, rather than Abbas, was able to secure the release of key Fatah prisoners, some of whom had served as many 25 years, will sweeten the victory for the Islamists.

* And for Egypt, which brokered the final deal after German mediation efforts had faltered, it has provided an opportunity to demonstrate to the Israelis (and Americans) as well to the Palestinians that the military junta that replaced President Hosni Mubarak can play a responsible role in mediating positive outcomes.

Needless to say, there's little political gain in the deal for Abbas, currently on a world tour to boost support for his effort to win U.N. recognition of a Palestinian state. The Palestinian Authority has had no part in negotiating the prisoner swap, and holds no sway over events in Hamas-ruled Gaza.

In Caracas, Abbas told TIME's Karl Vick, who is traveling with the Palestinian leader on his diplomatic roadshow, that "all in all it is good, of course. To release 1,000 prisoners is good for us, for the families." He claimed he wasn't worried if this would boost Hamas, a political rival: "Whether they are with us or against us, they are Palestinians. Any release of any prisoner is in the interest of every Palestinian."

Still, Abbas is more likely to be hoping that the attention garnered by the prisoner swap passes quickly, to allow his diplomatic quest to reclaim the Palestinian spotlight — although Hamas has no interest in letting that happen.

It's not yet clear why a deal whose parameters appear to be broadly similar to ones that have been on the table  -- and rejected by one side or the other -- for the best part of four years now were suddenly acceptable. One of the key sticking points in the recent past has been the question of where freed Palestinian prisoners will live, and whether they will include residents of East Jerusalem. Hamas claims to have prevailed on the latter, but it's not clear whether the prisoners will be allowed to return to their homes, as the Islamists have insisted, or whether they've bowed to the Israeli demand that some of those from the West Bank be transferred to Gaza, and others be required to live in exile. It may be days before those details are disclosed, and also the full list of those to be freed.

Hamas' circumstances outside of Gaza have certainly become increasingly precarious in the course of the Syrian rebellion, that has jeopardized the movement's political sanctuary in Damascus. The Assad regime has demanded public support from the Palestinian group, but Hamas has declined to provide that -- its own roots in the Muslim Brotherhood give Hamas ties of political kinship with the Syrian chapter of the movement, which is at the forefront of confrontations with the Assad regime. Hamas' equivocation in the face of the Syrian crisis has drawn punishment from Iran, which has reportedly cut off funding to Gaza, where Hamas has reportedly been unable to pay salaries for months. And some Syrian officials even accuse the moment of directly backing the insurrection. So, Hamas may be looking for new digs, and it behooves the movement's leadership to make nice with Egypt while it considers its options.

For the Israelis, there was a sense that the rapidly changes in the regional environment that began with the rebellions in Egypt and Tunisia last spring could jeopardize prospects for achieving Shalit's freedom. "We had a fear that the window of opportunity was closing," Netanyahu said ahead of the Israeli cabinet meeting to discuss the deal. Hamas' circumstances in Syria were changing, and the Egyptian military regime whose cooperation he praised may not necessarily be a long-term fixture.

And an Egyptian military leadership operating in an environment where it has legalized the Muslim Brotherhood and spoken of a democratic political process would not necessarily share Mubarak's reluctance to see Hamas win a victory.

There will be pain and regret, inevitably, when the lists of those to be freed are released -- from Israelis who have suffered at the hands of those who will now walk free, and from Palestinians whose loved ones were not on the list (there are thousands) and whose hopes of getting them freed in the foreseeable future will have been dashed. But the smiles on the faces of Noam and Aviva Shalit, and those that can be expected on the faces of a thousand Palestinian families when their own sons are freed, offers an all-too-rare moment free of pain in the enduring conflict.

-- With reporting by Aaron J. Klein/Jerusalem